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VG

Venture Global, Inc. (VG)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue and volumes surged as Plaquemines ramp continued; Q2 revenue was $3.10B and consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.39B, both sharply higher year over year, with 89 cargos exported totaling 331 TBtu . Versus consensus, revenue beat while EPS missed; EBITDA was above S&P’s EBITDA consensus on a standardized basis (see Estimates Context) .
  • Guidance was maintained: 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA $6.4–$6.8B and cargo outlook tilted to the high end; sensitivity to liquefaction fees was cut roughly in half as more cargos were contracted, improving forecast durability .
  • Strategic milestones: CP2 Phase 1 reached FID with a $15.1B project financing; multiple 20‑year SPAs signed (PETRONAS 1.0 MTPA; SEFE to 3.0 MTPA; Eni 2.0 MTPA); Calcasieu Pass bonds upgraded to BBB‑ by S&P .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: continued Plaquemines ramp (28/36 trains producing), structurally lower sensitivity to price spreads, positive arbitration update tone, and CP2 execution pace; watch tariffs and OI&E (interest expense and swap valuation) as headwinds .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record operational performance: 89 cargos exported (331 TBtu), up 157% TBtu YoY; consolidated adjusted EBITDA up 217% YoY on higher Plaquemines volumes .
  • Commercial momentum: signed multi‑decade SPAs with PETRONAS (1.0 MTPA), SEFE (now 3.0 MTPA total), and Eni (2.0 MTPA) supporting CP2; CP2 Phase 1 FID with $15.1B financing, no incremental equity issuance .
  • Management execution and pace: “CP2 construction is advancing at an industry‑leading pace, with first LNG production expected in 2027,” CEO Mike Sabel stated .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss vs consensus driven by non‑cash unfavorable changes in interest rate swaps ($288M QoQ impact) and higher interest expense (+$157M), despite stronger operating income .
  • Calcasieu Pass realized lower LNG sales prices due to commencement of post‑COD SPAs (reducing price uplift), partially offset by Plaquemines volume contribution .
  • Tariff and cost inflation risk: CP2 Phases 1–2 total project budget increased to $28.5–$29.5B reflecting interest rates, reciprocal tariffs ($210–$350M range), and labor attraction; management is mitigating via factory‑built standardization and internal EPC .

Financial Results

Quarterly trend (company-reported)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.52 $2.89 $3.10
Income from operations ($USD Billions)$0.59 $1.08 $1.04
Net income attributable to common ($USD Billions)$0.87 $0.40 $0.37
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.69 $1.35 $1.39
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.33 $0.15 $0.14

Year-over-year comparison (company-reported)

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.11 $3.10
Income from operations ($USD Billions)$0.36 $1.04
Net income attributable to common ($USD Billions)$0.30 $0.37
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.44 $1.39
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.12 $0.14

Consensus vs actual (Q2 2025)

MetricConsensus (S&P)Actual
Revenue ($USD)$2,970,750,900*$3,101,000,000
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.19214*$0.14
EBITDA ($USD)$1,249,570,510*$1,305,000,000* / Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,393,000,000

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown (Q2 2025 operating metrics)

FacilityCargos (count)TBtu exportedWeighted avg fixed liquefaction fee ($/MMBtu)
Calcasieu Pass38 140.2 $2.66
Plaquemines LNG51 190.5 $7.09

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cargos exported (count)33 63 89
TBtu exported121 233.6 331
LNG volumes sold (TBtu)128 228.3 329

Per‑MMBtu fees (Q2 2025 only): Weighted avg fixed facility fee $5.58; weighted avg commodity fee $3.97 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$6.4–$6.8B $6.4–$6.8B Maintained
Fixed liquefaction fee assumption (unsold cargos)FY 2025$6–$7/MMBtu $6–$7/MMBtu Maintained
EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu changeFY 2025$460–$480M $230–$240M Lowered sensitivity
Calcasieu Pass cargosFY 2025145–150 144–149 Slightly lowered
Plaquemines cargosFY 2025222–239 227–240 Raised low end/high end
Total cargos (company view)FY 2025367–389 (previous range) Expect high end Tilted higher end

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Contracting and long‑term SPAsDOE non‑FTA for CP2; $3B CP2 credit facility; Plaquemines trains at ~140% of nameplate; updated 2025 EBITDA guidance PETRONAS 1.0 MTPA; SEFE to 3.0 MTPA; Eni 2.0 MTPA; 59 more cargos contracted for 2H25; 57 commissioning cargos booked for 2026 Accelerating
CP2 FID and construction paceLaunching CP2 FID process Phase 1 FID with $15.1B financing; site mobilized; >1,200 workers; Baker Hughes trains fabricated Advancing rapidly
Tariffs/macro and costsGuidance sensitivity rising as spreads compressed Budget raised to $28.5–$29.5B; reciprocal tariffs $210–$350M; mitigating via factory build/internal EPC Managed headwind
Regulatory/legalArbitrations pending and disclosed Positive arbitration tone (partial final award context); separate tribunals; no material immediate obligations indicated De‑risking narrative
Power island and commissioning400 MW temporary power enabled commissioning Transition to permanent power island expected in 2H25 Resolving
Demand and regional trendsEurope major buyer in 2024 Europe below trend storage; China regas capacity growth to ~260 MTPA by 2030; strong bids for Q4 and 2026 cargos Supportive demand backdrop

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased to announce another strong quarter… CP2 construction is advancing at an industry‑leading pace, with first LNG production expected in 2027.” — CEO Mike Sabel .
  • CFO detailed drivers: revenue up on volumes (329 TBtu vs 132 TBtu YoY), fixed facility fees $5.58/MMBtu and commodity fees $3.97/MMBtu; net income up $65M YoY but offset by swaps and interest expense; consolidated adj. EBITDA up 217% YoY .
  • On CP2 costs: total Phases 1–2 now $28.5–$29.5B; reciprocal tariffs estimated $210–$350M; labor attraction built in; exposure mitigated by factory‑built standardization and internal EPC .

Q&A Highlights

  • Arbitration and contracts: Management expects similar outcomes across disputes given standard contract language; partial final award resolves main matter with residual proceeding on legal fees; separate tribunals for remaining cases .
  • Contracting pace and pricing: Intends to contract CP2 Phase 2 and begin brownfield Phase 3; pricing described in “mid to lower end of the $2 range” (context: long‑term contract pricing competitiveness) .
  • Plaquemines ramp and power: 28 trains operating; 51 Q2 commissioning cargos; transition to permanent power island expected in 2H25 .
  • CP2/plaquemines expansions: CP2 Phase 1 peak production seen closer to ~20 MTPA (14.4 MTPA nameplate) with 28 MTPA across both phases; Plaquemines brownfield could be >24 MTPA; sequencing guided by long‑term contracting .
  • Gas supply: Longer laterals (CPX ~90 miles; Blackfin ~190 miles) interconnecting across multiple pipes; layered term gas supply to ensure conservative coverage .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results vs consensus: Revenue beat ($3.10B vs $2.97B*), EPS missed ($0.14 vs $0.192*), EBITDA above S&P’s EBITDA consensus ($1.305B* vs $1.250B*), while company’s non‑GAAP consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.393B .
  • Drivers of EPS miss: non‑cash swap losses and higher interest expense; operational performance stronger (income from operations up +$675M YoY) .
  • Implication: Street models likely raise revenue and EBITDA assumptions on Plaquemines volumes and contracted fees, but trim EPS/OI&E and swap valuation assumptions; guidance stability plus reduced fee sensitivity lowers estimate volatility .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Volume‑led earnings power: Plaquemines ramp is the core driver; expect continued cargo and EBITDA strength into 2H25 as more trains come online and permanent power island comes online .
  • Guidance quality improved: Fee sensitivity halved ($230–$240M per $1/MMBtu change) due to higher contracted coverage; full‑year EBITDA range maintained at $6.4–$6.8B .
  • Strategic derisking: CP2 Phase 1 FID and $15.1B financing, BBB‑ upgrade of Calcasieu Pass bonds, and positive arbitration tone reduce funding and legal overhangs .
  • Watch headwinds: Reciprocal tariffs and EPC/labor costs embedded in CP2 budget; interest expense and swap mark‑to‑market will continue to influence EPS .
  • Commercial upside: Robust demand into Q4 and 2026 (Europe storage below trend, China regas build‑out) and optionality from uncontracted winter capacity can push results toward the high end .
  • Near‑term catalysts: Additional long‑term SPAs, CP2 Phase 2 contracting progress, Plaquemines permanent power transition, Q3 shipping cadence, and potential tariff clarity .
  • Portfolio growth: Brownfield expansions at CP2 and Plaquemines position VG to exceed 100 MTPA by ~2030, reinforcing a multi‑year capacity and cash flow growth story .

Additional source materials read in full:

  • Q2 2025 8‑K 2.02 press release and exhibits .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call transcript .
  • Q2 2025 July 7 8‑K operating metrics (cargo counts, fees) .
  • Prior quarters: Q1 2025 8‑K ; Q4 2024 8‑K .
  • Press release mirroring Q2 results .